Way Too Early Predictions

If this decision holds up, Bush can forget about eking out an upset in Oregon. On the other hand, that won’t matter, since this result means he’s probably got Florida locked up.

Advertisements

9 Responses to “Way Too Early Predictions”

  1. Brian B Says:

    As a conservative Oregonian, I beg to differ. sure, Nader’s campaign would have been another nail. But I think we still have a chance. Recently I volunteered for the phone banks at local GOP HQ. We were polling registered independents, and from what I saw, and what a member of party leadership told me, the response of independents has been overwhelmingly pro-Bush. Yhis was in Eugene. I repeat, Eugene. Sure, it’d be nice to see the uber-left of the stae abandin Kerry, but I think many in the center are tired of the strient tones of the President’s detractors, and there are plenty of Forest Products Industry workers who are still smarting from some of the decisions Clinton made. I think it could still go either way.

  2. MIke M Says:

    Uh, I realize that this is a right-leaning blog, but have there been *any* people saying that their swing state is leaning towards Kerry?

    In all fairness, Ohio is still too close to call, but judging from electoral history I just don’t see us going to Kerry. Heck, we even voted for Nixon over JFK in 1960…this isn’t exactly a great place to run as a liberal east coast Senator. I see Bush pulling 52-53% here.

  3. mike the analyst Says:

    Oregon will not be won by Bush, yet he’ll still win by 100+ Electoral Votes.

  4. Brian B Says:

    I hope you’re wrong and right, Mike. If Bush loses this state, it won’t be because we didn’t try.

  5. Brian B Says:

    One additional tidbit I learned recently: Apparently the U of O has the 3rd largest College Republican club in the nation.

  6. James Says:

    If Nader is not on the ballot — isn’t it fairly likely that a lot of would-be Nader voters would not vote?

  7. Brian B Says:

    James,

    Or write-in Nader or Kucinich. As much as they get on my nerves here sometimes, they may prove “useful idiots” in the end.

  8. rosignol Says:

    We were polling registered independents, and from what I saw, and what a member of party leadership told me, the response of independents has been overwhelmingly pro-Bush. Yhis was in Eugene. I repeat, Eugene.

    Eugene, OR? The place that makes Portland look centrist?

  9. Brian B Says:

    No, Eugene, OR, the place that makes Portland look CONSERVATIVE, and BERKELEY look centrist.

    Bear in mind, that once you get away from the cities, and ESPECIALLY if you get away from Eugene and Portland, small town and rural Oregon tend to be quite conservative. Plus, a lot of our independents are scared by the extreme left. The Extreme left is a lot like California — the closer you live to it, the more you either embrace it or despise it.

Comments are closed.


%d bloggers like this: