This Is Getting Ridiculous

Been gone for a while, because lightning knocked out my router.

Somebody up there is upset with me today.

Hard-wired into the cable modem now.

Interesting exchange on Fox, Susan Estrich was just on spinning that Kerry has it locked up if the exit polls are correct–but Mark Melhman from the Bush campaign says that Bush is running better than the exit polls in Orange County, Florida (Orlando), where he’s a good two percentage points ahead of his 2000 tally.

With 40% of the vote in, Bush is still way up in Florida. Michael Barone says turnout has increased in Florida dramatically, and Bush’s margins are up in most counties–but Broward and Palm Beach counties have not reported in yet. Feel free to speculate as to why.

If Bush is still up when those two report in, he’s got Florida in the bag.

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16 Responses to “This Is Getting Ridiculous”

  1. Chris M Says:

    See below:

    ST GOOD NEWS I’VE SEEN [Michael Graham]
    Watching Susan Estrich battling defensively on FNC, saying the

  2. A.D. Says:

    Smoked your router? Bummer. Watching your coverage is better than weather.com, given that I’m in Roswell, GA.

    Might want to bring my router down right about now, too…

  3. David [.net] Says:

    Susan Estrich may perform unnatural acts.

  4. Will Collier Says:

    Yeah, good thing my wife gave me a gift card for MicroCenter for my birthday (this isn’t exactly the way I wanted to spend it…)

  5. Slartibartfast Says:

    Broward County just reported in with their first results; 200k net Kerry votes. Now a 6% spread.

  6. Slartibartfast Says:

    Sorry, that should have been 140k net. 5.5% spread, now.

  7. Steve Says:

    Will,

    Had a hit over here in DOuglasville as well – our alram system has been fried (125 for a new system board – joy.) Luckily, I had just gotten done installing two network panels with my modem, and routers, and it’s surge protected. Otherwise I might be in your boat. Keep up the good work!

    Steve

  8. Chris M Says:

    Florida looking good for Bush, but alot of the SOUTHERN counties have not reported yet. But alot of the republican counties are up from 15-30 %.

  9. A.D. Says:

    Go check the contracts on tradesports.com now. HUGE movement in the past hour.

  10. Slartibartfast Says:

    Odd that CNN wasn’t reporting any votes from Broward, while this site seems to be well ahead of the CNN totals.

    But Will and Stephen already linked to it, so it should be no surprise.

  11. Rob M Says:

    Kerry should be up by 500,000 to 700,000 in broward and Palm beach.

    Bush needs a larger lead from the other counties in Florida right now. Even if Dade comes in good for bush.

  12. Matt Says:

    I’m a broward county (Ft. Lauderdale) absentee ballot guy and…I never got my absentee ballot (in spite of two calls to the supervisor of elections office and them saying, “we’ll express mail it to you). I think this election ain’t over until the absentees are ALL counted.

  13. Slartibartfast Says:

    Kerry should be up by 500,000 to 700,000 in broward and Palm beach.

    Nah. PBC had Gore over Bush by 116k votes in 2000, and Broward had Gore over Bush by 210k, so I think we’re talking about 350k net Kerry votes, there.

  14. Slartibartfast Says:

    Broward just reported some more; 160k net Kerry votes now with just over 3/4 of the precincts reporting.

  15. tree hugging sister Says:

    Well, here in the Redneck Riviera (that would be the last county west in the Panhandle and Pensacola), we’re running a 74% Bush to 26% Kerry for an election result start. Here

  16. motionview Says:

    It seems there is some divergence between some actual results and the exit polls. In these exit polls, what percentage of people decline to participate? How do the pollsters model this? How do they validate these models, when there are some people who just don’t want be polled?

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