Were The Exit Polls A Malicious BlogLeak?

From the American Specator’s “Prowler”:

According to at least three sources, one inside the Kerry campaign, and two outside of it, but with ties to senior Kerry advisers, some of the “early polling numbers” were in fact direct reports from Kerry campaign or Democratic Party operatives on the ground in such critical states as Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to a Washington lobbyist with knowledge of the numbers, the numbers were packaged together so as to appear to be exit poll results. They were then scrubbed through several sources to land in the lap of sympathetic bloggers who these operatives believed would put the numbers up with little question.

Some of the numbers claimed to be exit polling data that showed Kerry with a 8-1 voter ratio. As soon as the numbers hit the Internet, panic set in.

From VodkaPundit, posted the morning of election day, before any of the “exit numbers” were publicized:

Who’ll be the first to leak exit polling numbers from, say, Ohio or Pennsylvania?

More interestingly, who’ll be spun with phony exit polling intended to suppress or boost the vote in one state or another?

Advantage… me!


25 Responses to “Were The Exit Polls A Malicious BlogLeak?”

  1. Mr. Bingley Says:

    dnc shenanigans/stupidity aside, the problems with these polls is that the early voters are going to be the angry/motivated ones, and those are also the ones more likely to answer a poll, and it only takes a few of them to skew the ‘scientific’ poll. i think there were a lot of first-time bush voters who would either not answer the poll questions or who would fudge their answers if they did so.

  2. Nick Says:

    Does the DNC not remember what happened in Florida during the 2000 election? Let’s recap.

    Before the pan handle polls closed (because they’re in a different time zone), many networks called the State for Bush. Many people have said that one of the reasons Florida was so close in 2000 was because voters went home in the pan handle thinking the state was already won.

    So why would Kerry want to leak data making it look like battle ground states were won? Wouldn’t they be scaring off their own voters who didn’t want to stand in insanely long lines for nothing? Could that have pulled in more Bush voters who didn’t want to see 4 years of Kerry?

    Could that have been the stupidest decision of the election? That is if it’s at all true.

  3. denise Says:

    The moonbats think the exit polls were accurate, but Karl Rove had the voting machines rigged so that Bush would win regardless of what the voters actually did.

  4. 28J Says:

    Exit Polls, Uncovered

    On Tuesday, while bogged down at work, I received an e-mail with the preliminary exit poll data. It didn’t look good, but I didn’t have time to digest it. No sooner had I received the exit poll data, I received e-mail indicating that there problems wit…

  5. Nick Says:

    Ok – cheap plug. I blogged on it here.

  6. REN Says:


    what you mentioned, the networks calling the vote for BUSH before the polls closed, is one of the WORST rumors to come from MM, MSM and the like… when did they REALLY call it for bush?

    here are some figures for those interested, straight from CBS news’s 2000 election files*:

    NBC called GORE @ 7:49:40 pm EST
    CBS called GORE @ 7:50:11 pm EST
    FOX called GORE @ 7:52:00 pm EST
    ABC called GORE @ 8:02:00 pm EST

    omg, FOX?

    it wasn’t until MUCH later that the REVERSAL happened and they called FLORIDA for BUSH… and they all did it at about the same time… (~2:15ish am EST) 4 HOURS LATER!!!

    now, if they want to argue that the MSM made projections earlier that influenced the POLLS, i’d love to see the INFO on that, but really, at the “closing” of the polls we heard, GORE, GORE, GORE, and GORE… and he STILL LOST FLORIDA!

    i love this nasty rumor that just won’t DIE!!!


  7. bkw Says:

    I’d argue it’s another misstep by the now defunct Kerry campaign apparatus.

    I also suspect the Kerry campaign played a part in the NYT running the al-Qaqaa a week early — Kerry wanted to run attack ads on Bush and wanted a week to do it, and pressured the NYT to launch early (the NYT said the story wouldn’t hold — the story was 18 months old — what pressure, from where?).

    Just another blunder by the (more) inept political machine, imo.

  8. The Key Monk Says:

    The Afterglow of Victory

    Here’s some lunchtime reading material The Monk printed out at work, and which should be interesting for you regarding the impact and importance of the Bush victory.

  9. Jason Says:

    Ah Yes! Exit Polls. Weren’t these the genesis of Gore’s 500,000 popular vote margin in 2000? That’s certainly been my belief for the past 4 years as we have endlessly endured the “select versus elect” nonsense; most notably from Europe.

    The Dems set that one up to head off the then CW of “Gore wins Electoral College loses Popular Vote” scenario i.e let’s make sure he get’s the Popular Vote plus mandate too …and it bombed big time as their first assumption was already trumped.

    They were however stubborn donkeys and we got blindsided on the National Vote. Panhandle Pete and lots of others west of his time zone didn’t vote once the Exit Poll driven “Call for Gore” worked it’s magic via CNN/CBS/ABC et al. I’ve never seen a numeric estimate of the impact of that dynamic at the National level as all the attention was on Florida. Let me suggest however that Bush probably had a nascent 1 to 2 million lead screwed by that very successful tactic.

    The MSM were at the time the couriers and maybe we should give them some kudos this time around for not being gullible (NB that doesn’t exclude “willing”) again. F***wit Wonkette and her ilk played the dummies this time round and inadvertently moved the Dow in the process …where is Eliot Spitzer, he has to be focused on that one.

    The Dem problem is they are Rove wannabees but don’t quite have the intellect of the Machiavelian Maestro. He had both ends covered this time so KR let’s “exponentiate in twodouble0eight”

  10. Howard Says:

    What I want to know is who made a killing on Tradesports? Those exit polls couldn’t have done a better job of crashing the Bush contracts. They were running at around 25 at 5 PM. Someone had to’ve cleaned up.

  11. Kathleen A Says:

    My only question is – without the Kerry campaign – what will the NY Times and CBS do with their time now? I don’t know anyone who answered the TRUTH at an exit poll and why should they? They had moonbats from moveon.org sitting in earshot and their answers. I would have said Kerry TOO!

  12. jay Says:

    Again, the MSM went into its bag of old tricks and again it didn’t work. Exit polls have been used for years to call Democratic states long before Republican states (even when both are equal in percentages) to deter voting in Mountain and Pacific Time Zones. This time, though, the blogosphere and talk radio fired up their readers and voters to go out and vote after these “polls” were revealed.

    The old Democratic playhouse has been torn down. The party had better focus its message and put forward issues that appeal to voters rather than rely on propaganda and deception if it wants to survive.

  13. Kathleen A Says:

    I was watching when they called New Jersey for Kerry at 7:57 PM – before our polls even closed. Bush lost by 7 in NJ. Bush was UP in Florida all night – even when 99% of the precincts were reporting and they WOULD NOT call it for Bush. If they thought they were being ‘unbiased’ they were fooling themselves. My mother – who is NOT a partisan political operative – kept yelling at me WHY?? It’s not fair!!! I told her it was simply underlining their bias against Bush. She was pissed.

  14. Nick Says:

    More of a clarification as I really misspoke. Although never officially called until later – the networks had a policy of not releasing any data about a state until it’s polls had closed. So they did start releasing exit poll data after the the polls closed in the main part of the state, but before polls had closed in the pan handle during the 2000 election.

  15. Fred McAuliffe Says:

    Just another Clintonesque dirty trick. It may have won PA, WI, and MN for Kerry. Those states were very close in polling, and just a couple of percentage points made the difference.

    Next election more voters will be warned about this particular deception, and will ignore the exit polls. Hopefully, before next election more anti-fraud laws will be passed, and the dems will find it harder to stuff the ballot box in close states.

  16. Carl Says:

    On Tuesday, I had the internet off all day, was busy, and made damn sure I wasn’t going to find out what was going on until polls closed. I knew the dems and the MSM will try and pull one last dirty trick, had no idea what it would be this time, I expected something like the DUI from 2000, instead these phoney exit polls. It’s clear these were cooked polls, with absolutely no validity or authority. I don’t know why anybody took them seriously.

  17. Anthony Says:

    Howard –

    I don’t know if $162 is “a killing”, but I profited that much on the election, starting with $250, and a brand-new account on Election Day.

    I sold Kerry at 72.0 – I made about $57 on that one. I bought Bush at about 50, and made about $40 on that. I made money on Bush losing Wisconsin, and I made a few smaller trades which netted me smaller profits.

  18. Grub Says:

    “As soon as the numbers hit the Internet, panic set in.”

    I never panick’d… when I saw those numbers, I just remembered 2002… and 2000.. and what bullshit the exit polls had become. Then I went and played BF1942 for an hour, came back… and it was all fixed.

    Susan Estrich’s grating gloating voice did float into the room just as I was bombing the hell out of those pesky Nazis in my Corsair and ruined the moment, but later when I saw her she looked as if she had been gut-punched.

    And I knew then that all was well.

  19. Greg D Says:

    I was willing to think it might have been a Kerry campaign “dirty trick”, until I thought back on what I saw Election Night on Fox.

    The Democrats believed those polls. They were happy and bouncy at teh Kerry campaign. Then the election results really started coming in, esp. Florida, where Bush was out-performing 2000. The Dems took it like a punch to the gut.

    The polls may have been gamed, but if so, I don’t think it was by the Kerry campaign.

  20. Notes & Musings Says:

    Bad Exit Polls Rigged By Dems?

    I’m So Shocked From the American Spectator: According to at least three sources, one inside the Kerry campaign, and two outside of it, but with ties to senior Kerry advisers, some of the “early polling numbers” were in fact direct…

  21. McGehee Says:

    I decided that for the Republicans to be doing so well for Senate and House, while Bush was “losing,” simply didn’t make sense.

  22. Brooks Says:

    The late Mayor Richard Daley who gave JFK Illinois in 1960 must be spinning in his crypt.

  23. Ryan Says:

    It turns out that the ‘real’ media was quick to turn around and blame their bad poll data on the bloggers. I did a little run down of how the MSM is pinning their screw up on us again. Too long to post here.

    Political Tracker: Bloggers Demonized Because of Media Screw Up (Again)

  24. David March, animator & fiddler Says:

    You silly man.

    The exit polls were perfectly ACCURATE.

    But Karl Rove— the evil guy!— PERSONALLY went around to each electronic voting machine and diddled the tiney little circuits to change the Gore—Oops!— I mean, the Kerry Votes to BUSH votes!

    You should never ever doubt the honesty and veracity of the major news organizations that do those completely reliable exit polls, you naughty person.

  25. Mr. D Says:

    It seems odd to me that the Kerry campaign went to all this effort to spin the exit polls…and then called off the lawyers because they believed their own hype.

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