Dhimmitude Or Diaspora?

Something’s been bothering me since reading Christopher Caldwell’s piece on the Netherlands in the wake of Theo van Gogh’s murder. It’s this bit:

The question naturally arises: If immigrants behave this way now, what will happen when they are far more numerous, as all authorities have long promised they will be? It has been estimated that the country’s two largest cities, Amsterdam and Rotterdam, will be “majority minority” very soon (Rotterdam is today at 47 percent), and already 65 percent of primary and secondary students in both cities are of non-Dutch parentage. London’s Daily Telegraph, citing immigration experts and government statistics, reported a net outflow of 13,000 people from Holland in the first six months of 2004, the first such deficit in half a century. One must treat this statistic carefully–it could be an artifact of an aging population in which many are retiring to warmer places. But it could also be the beginning of something resembling the American suburban phenomenon of “white flight,” occurring at the level of an entire country.

What if a considerable fraction–even a large minority–of that 13,000 really are fleeing from Islamic radicalism? What happens 20 or 30 years from now, when demographic trends could well result in “minority-majority” (or even outright majority) status for the Islamic cohort in western Europe? If they’re faced with the options of dhimmitude or flight, where will the native Europeans flee to?

Why, here, of course.

Lots will go to Canada, I would guess particularly the Scandinavians, and plenty more will go to Australia. But the majority will be drawn right here to the USA. After all, we’ve got more room, more money, more opportunities–and most importantly, we’re the most able to protect our own. Not unlike their ancestors’ cousins of past centuries, the majority of those who give up on Europe will come here.

And then what? What will we do with them? More interestingly, what will they do to us? Will the ‘blue states’ fill up with UNphilic Euro-refugees and get bluer? Or will the refugees, haven been driven from their homes by radical Islam, lean more towards the ‘red’ Scots-Irish motto of nemo me impune lacessit?

I don’t have any idea. You don’t, either. It’s silly to even project current political trends in this country 20 years from now. In 1985, the South was still a province of the Democratic Party at virtually every level below the Presidency, and California was reliably Republican. Nobody really knows what the political maps will look like in 2025, much less how those maps might be impacted by a new wave of European immigrants.

But somebody ought to start thinking about it, both here, and across the pond. Just in case Holland is the canary in Europe’s coal mine.

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16 Responses to “Dhimmitude Or Diaspora?”

  1. Joan Says:

    There’s no “just in case” necessary… Holland is the canary, for sure.

    How odd to think of Rotterdam, with its perennially damp air and boxy 1950s architecture becoming an Islamic city. I can’t think of a place less like the Middle East, but obviously the immigration is more a factor of the culture than the climate.

  2. The Parson Says:

    They’ll all become Scots-Irish. It’s predestined.

  3. Foster Says:

    Interesting piece you’ve got there, Will. . .

    My first thought, though, was not about how exodus from an increasingly orthodox europe would affect the American political food chain, but about voting blocks in two of the worlds most prominent Nuclear powers-if

  4. Foster Says:

    Damn! My last post was DARK!

    I formally apologize for being a downer and offer this as tribute:

    http://www.scrappleface.com/MT/archives/002032.html

  5. Mike Daley Says:

    Stephen,
    I think the major point being missed in all this angst regarding immigrants and immigration is the “assimilation factor”.
    Old Europe has never assimilated it’s huge ingress of, mostly Mid-East, peoples into it’s culture nor it’s political system.
    However, until the late 20th Century, the USA worked hard to assimilate those emigrating here.
    Now, however, we seem to be emulating the failed European paradigm, with much effort being expended to keep, legal and non-legal, immigrants in their own lanuguage/ cultural ghettoes. this effort, of course, being led, financed, and politicized by the so-called Progressive Left.
    I’m certain, given the intellectual superiority of most of vodka’s readers, there will be, hopefully, many more eloquent and erudite comments on this paradigm.
    BTW, a blogger who is almost a rightward antithesis of Vodka’s libertarian leanings, self described theo-con Orrin Judd has been blogging on the USA immigrant issue for quite a few years.
    If you follow the Bros Judd copy/paste link below, you must read the comments.
    Mike Daley

    http://www.brothersjudd.com/blog/archives/019628.html

    Orrin’s closing comment:
    “Other than race, why would Republicans turn such folk away?”

  6. Mike Daley Says:

    Will,
    Mea Culpa for addressing previous to Martini Boy rather than you.
    Mike

  7. Carl Says:

    It is so hard to project 20 years in advance, but Pat Buchanon’s book “Death of the West” a couple years ago forecast just this very problem, what is going to happen in a Arabized Europe? Between massive immigration, and a birthrate below replacement, Europe has it has been for hundreds of years will cease to exist by the middle of this century. It is very possible that many will make the trek over the Atlantic, and I would think, would not want to make the mistake they did in Europe. However, their children probably will.

  8. rosignol Says:

    I don’t have any idea. You don’t, either.

    I have an advantage you don’t- my dad’s side of the family are immigrants.

    Those not inclined to a Nemo me impune lacessit attitude will go elsewhere- Canada or New Zealand, most likely. Those who are, will come here.

    This is not new, it has been going on for some time. Kim Du Toit is only one example…

  9. Zebediah Says:

    If they’re faced with the options of dhimmitude or flight, where will the native Europeans flee to?

    Why, here, of course.

    Are we willing to give them all green cards? If not, that could put a hitch in their plans. The Atlantic’s a lot harder to swim across than the Rio Grande.

  10. Nick Says:

    The French? Here? Anyone else think a “No Vacancy” sign hanging on Lady Liberty looks more and more attractive? 😉

  11. erp Says:

    The stage was set during the 60’s and 70’s. Mullti-culturism and hyphenated-Americans replaced the melting pot and just plain Americans.

    Perhaps 30 or 40 years of Republican admdinistrations can reverse this unhappy state of affairs.

    My questions which I haven’t seen asnwered anywhere is: Why are all these Muslims emigrating? Muslim countries are for the most part socialist theocracies. Why leave these paradaisical warm homelands for cold climes where there still are some vestiges of democracy and capitalism?

  12. John F Says:

    There are currently some 480 million citizens of European Union states. 15 million are Muslims.

    In the Netherlands 91% of the population is ethnic Dutch, Muslims 4%.
    The total population under 14 is 18%.
    So majority of schoolkids Muslim? I don’t think so.
    The Muslim population is heavily concentrated in a few urban centres: thats why they show up in schools for (inner) Amsterdam and Rotterdam.

    Or take France as an example.
    Current Muslim population c.7%
    IF current rates of Muslim increase (immigration and reproduction combined)continue at 2% per annum
    AND non-Muslims decline at 0.5% per annum
    THEN after 50 years Muslim population is 20% of total, after roughly a century 50%.

    Both assumptions are unlikely. Immigrant decendant birthrates almost always fall off from initial levels.

    Demographic takeover isn’t the problem, short to medium-term anyhow.
    What is the problem is a (possibly growing) minority of militants within a larger number of poorly-assimilated, welfare-oriented second or third generation Muslims. A fertile recruitment and operational environment for jihadis.

    The best likely to be dropping multicultural nonsense, insisting upon assimilation, and draining the urban crime/welfare swamps.
    BTW, France had a good record of asimilating immigrants (Poles, Spanish, Italians, Portuguese) 1850/1950.

  13. McGehee Says:

    Why are all these Muslims emigrating?

    Most are fleeing the theocracies, but others are following along to try to keep the mullahs in control. I’d bet they think of it as “jihad by demographics.”

  14. Ash Says:

    The French? Here? Anyone else think a “No Vacancy” sign hanging on Lady Liberty looks more and more attractive?

    Oh, given that our culture tends to be so contagious, surely we have room for some of them.

  15. reliapundit Says:

    I have blogged on this a lot this past week – and been linked to on it by chrenkoff, among others. Here’re the links –

    Me on the new emigres leaving Europe:

    http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/2005/01/eu-needs-thatcher-now.html

    Me on the islamification of France:

    http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/2005/01/par-is-tanbul.html

    Me with more – much more – on the islamification of France:

    http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/2005/01/mosque-de-notre-dame.html

  16. Cake Eater Chronicles Says:

    Those Fightin’ Europeans

    Interesting stuff going on over at Martini Boy’s joint. I really enjoy that there are two bartenders nowdays: we get more good stuff as a result. First, after reading this article , part of which touches upon the “white flight”…

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